Often people think a treament doesn't work, when the real issue is whether there is brood or not.
A lot of you use some treatment, (it doesn't really matter what for this discussion), and your mite drops don't change much afterwards and you assume you're not killing mites. So let's just look at some numbers
Independent of WHAT the treatment is, here is jsut a rough idea of what goes on. Theses are round numbers and probably underestimate the mites reproduction and underestimate how many get groomed off by the bees.
Assuming treating every week and a treatment with 100% effectiveness on phoretic mites. If you assume that half the Varroa are in the cells and you have a total mite population of 32,000, and if we assume half the phoretic mites will go back in the cells and in one week, half of the mites in the cells will have one offspring each and emerge then the numbers look like this:
Week 1 Phoretic 16,000, In cells 16,000 Killed by treatment 16,000, Reproduced 8,000, Emerged 16,000 (half of the 16,000 plus the 8,000 offspring), went back into cells 4,000
Week 2 Phoretic 12,000, In cells 12,000 Killed by treatment 12,000, Reproduced 6,000, Emerged 12,000 went back into cells 3,000
Week 3 Phoretic 9,000, In cells 9,000, killed by treatment 9000, Reproduced 4,500, Emerged 9,000, Went back into cells 2,250
Week 4 Phoretic 6750, In cells 6,750, killed by treatment 6,750, Reproduced 3,375, Emerged 6,750 went back into cells 1,688
Now lets Assume treating every week and 50% effectiveness on phoretic mites. If you assume that half the Varroa are in the cells and you have a total mite population of 32,000, and if we assume half the phoretic mites will go back in the cells and in one week half of the mites in the cells will have one offspring each and emerge then the numbers look like this:
Week 1 Phoretic 16,000, In cells 16,000 Killed by treatment 8,000, Reproduced 8,000, Emerged 16,000, went back into cells 4,000
Week 2 Phoretic 20,000, In cells 12,000 Killed by treatment 10,000, Reproduced 6,000, Emerged 12,000 went back into cells 5,000
Week 3 Phoretic 17,000, In cells 8,500, killed by treatment 9000, Reproduced 5,500, Emerged 11,000, Went back into cells 4,250
Week 4 Phoretic 15,250, In cells 9,750, killed by treatment 7,625, Reproduced 4,875, Emerged 9,750 went back into cells 3,813
Now lets Assume treating once every week with 50% effectiveness with no brood in the hive
Week 1 Phoretic 32,000, In cells 0 Killed by treatment 16,000, Reproduced 0, Emerged 0, went back into cells 0
Week 2 Phoretic 16,000, In cells 0 Killed by treatment 8,000, Reproduced 0, Emerged 0 went back into cells 0
Week 3 Phoretic 8,000, In cells 0, killed by treatment 4,000, Reproduced 0, Emerged 0, Went back into cells 0
Week 4 Phoretic 4,000, In cells 0, killed by treatment 2,000, Reproduced 0, Emerged 0 went back into cells 0
Then of course there's 100% with no brood:
Week 1 Phoretic 32,000, In cells 0 Killed by treatment 32,000, Reproduced 0, Emerged 0, went back into cells 0
Week 2 Phoretic 0, In cells 0 Killed by treatment 0, Reproduced 0, Emerged 0 went back into cells 0