I have a draper 3.5 frame observation hive in my house and I have had it successfully going for a bit over 3 years without it failing.
Because it is so small the colony swarms a minimum of 2-3 times each spring/summer/fall. Sometimes I can catch the swarm, sometimes not - but it is always a fascinating thing to watch a swarm from the inside of the hive and watch all the antics of the decision process of who gets to be the next queen and afterswarms and all that jazz.
I have seen failed swarms a couple of times. I was at my regular hives and had a colony swarm with huge mass of bees in air, then end up going back to the hive - presuming they couldn't kick out queen. They eventually swarmed successfully I think the next day.
My observation hive has swarmed with the swarm group going into the air then returning to the observation hive (then eventually successfully swarming).
But this is a new one for me and these swarm things always fascinate me:
About a week ago I was expecting a swarm since queen cells were just getting capped. They did swarm and the swarm hovered 30 feet in air near a box elder tree they always seem to go to in my neighbors yard (always inaccessable :-P). They never landed though they seemed to want to near a branch high up. After hovering for about 10-15 minutes they finally just came back to the hive.
Again I figured they couldn't kick queen out of hive. I have suspected that I have seen failed swarms more in my observation hive because they have about a 6 foot tube to navigate out of with two 90 degree turns in it and maybe this just makes it harder to coax the queen out of the hive.
Yesterday, they swarmed again up into the air and towards the box elder tree, then fairly quickly came right back to the hive.
Then about an hour later they swarmed again and this time they collected in the box elder tree. Interestingly at this point I checked observation hive and saw a queen cell had released a queen and I then saw the virgin queen running around the hive.
They sat there for about 1.5 hours, then I'll be darned if they didn't come right back to the observation hive and have stayed overnight.
This is the first time I have seen a failed swarm where they actually landed as a swarm cluster then came back to the original hive.
Since yesterday afternoon the virgin queen and queens still in queen cells (about 5 still left) have been tooting and quacking constantly (always fun to watch and listen to).
In the last week I have not seen any sign of the original queen (last sighting about 10 days ago). I am suspecting they lost the original queen, possibly during that first swarm attempt a week ago. At that time I am quite certain there were no virgin queens in the hive.
So, again presuming/guessing . . . . I think yesterday they tried to swarm with the newly released virgin queen and she just hasn't gotten the message to leave yet (or is too busy tooting around the hive to be bothered with something like a swarm).
They are still way overcrowded, so I suspect they will try to swarm again either today or in next couple of days with one of the virgin queens.
One thing that we get to watch frequently that I never see in the books regarding queen tooting: Virgin queens (first released) do quite a bit of tooting all around the hive. They barrel around the hive walking all over everybody, then stop and toot (pressing abdomen onto frame).
But, one thing we watch pretty frequently is the the virgin queen will go to one of the queen cells and press her abdomen right against the queen cell with a queen in it and toot away. She doesn't rip the queen cell apart, just toots at the queen in there.
One of the better queen piping articles I have read on the web is this one which seems to cast some different notions on the rationale for queen piping. I often see that it has to do with a "battle cry" to warn other queens-to-be, but it seems that it may have other functions of delaying other queens from emerging, possibly so that original virgin can swarm or to avoid conflict between virgins:
http://honeybee.drawwing.org/book/queen-pipingAnyway, just interesting stuff going on from the observation hive front and a first for having 3 failed swarm attempts from the same colony.